I am often struck by the results of opinion polls asking ordinary people in Israel and Palestine about their views on the prospects of peace. Most Israelis and Palestinians say they would accept difficult sacrifices if that led to peace.  But most Israelis and Palestinians also say that they do not believe that if they made those sacrifices they would actually get peace.

This is the context. One of complete breakdown of trust.

I see three major challenges:

i) a solution will require agreement between two sides despite each convinced that the other is not sincere;

ii) there is a need for external (especially US) drive and energy but at the same time no solution can be imposed on the people on either side;

iii) there is a need to address matters of principle – justice, and rights and legitimacy - and also matters of very practical reality, like the placement of borders, security arrangements, access to water. At the same time neither side has much appreciation of the other side’s view of reality, and how it affects them.

This brings me back the issue of trust. Since the 2nd Intifadah the Israeli public has had little trust of Palestinian intentions. And with continuing building of settlements, even during the periods when there have been active negotiations on borders, the Palestinian public has little trust in Israeli intentions.

We have been stuck for some time trying to build trust when these obstacles have been overwhelming. Confidence building measures can have some success in the short term, but that confidence can so easily be destroyed by actions of extremists who see no future in negotiations and believe only in absolute victory for themselves and defeat for the other side.

Should we give up then?

The realist might say look at experience. 60 years of efforts to resolve the issue have not led to a solution. They will say that the chance of the next initiative doing so will be no greater than the last. Perhaps better to focus efforts on other issues which are less difficult?

But the fact is that crucial wider problems will only be resolved through peace in the Middle East.
i) economic prosperity of the region is hugely damaged by the conflict;
ii) the credibility of international institutions suffers when their calls for a solution do not lead to one;
iii) and despair and desperation make people vulnerable to those who want to recruit them for terrorist purposes.

Peace in the Middle East is sometimes called a “strategic choice”. I see it as a “strategic obligation”. We must rise to the challenge, however difficult that may be.

US special envoy George Mitchell has said what we need is “a plan not a process”.  He is right.

This approach takes us beyond trying to build trust before tackling the difficult issues. It takes us to a point where many Israelis and Palestinians can agree.

i) Many on both sides can agree that the essence of a solution needs to be based on the 1967 borders. And many can also agree that negotiation on amendments to those borders involving exchanges of land of equal size and equal quality would increase the prospects of progress without abandoning a principle of fairness;

ii) Many can agree that refugees in camps around the region since 1967, indeed some since 1948, need to be given a chance for a future based on a recognition of their rights as refugees under international law;

iii) And many can agree that people of all religions should be given proper access to their holy sites in Jerusalem and that Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem should be able to be full citizens in their respective states.

When we start from the points on which moderate people on both sides agree, we can begin to believe that progress towards peace is really possible.

In this context, the Arab Peace Initiative, launched in Beirut in 2002 is a hugely helpful initiative. I hope Palestinians, and people from all Arab countries, will continue to promote this approach which has had much less visibility than it should on the Israeli street.

The Foreign Secretary, David Milliband, has spoken of a 23 State solution, ie the Arab League plus Israel. That is a vision I hope many people in the region can believe in.

So, as we move forward, let’s continue to describe the solution, not the problem. Let’s continue to show the extremists on both sides that their caricature of the other side is wrong and unhelpful. And let’s build on the desire of both sides for their children to live more peaceful lives than they themselves have done.

I come back to the opinion polls. People on both sides want peace and are willing to make hard choices to achieve it. Let’s now help them come to the belief that if they make those difficult choices, peace really is a possibility.

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